A computational modeling study of covid-19 in Bangladesh

28, January 2021 | Bangladesh

Authors:

Abstract

Currently, the world is facing one of the serious pandemics of the world’s history which is caused by SARS-CoV-2.1 The cur- rent pandemic is referred to as the novel COVID-19 which was first reported in Wuhan Province of China. The transmission of COVID-19 takes place by inhaling the respiratory droplets com- ing from the coughing or sneezing of an infected person.2 It is unknown when COVID-19 spread to Bangladesh. How- ever, the first three cases were reported on March 8, 2020.3 To prevent the spread of COVID-19 infections, a nationwide shutdown, in the guise of a general public holiday, went effec- tive on March 26 and continued until May 30.4 Currently, 82 laboratories across the country are performing more than 10,000 tests/day.5 However, those numbers remained in- sufficient considering more than 160 million population. Bangladesh is facing unprecedented challenges to combat COVID-19 because of high population density, a major pro- portion of people living on their day-to-day income, and the fragile healthcare system. In this study, we provide a forecast of the probable size of the infected casesfor the next 365 days, with different intervention scenarios. More importantly, from a public health control perspective, we then forecast the probable course of spread at the national level, considering different interventions (individually or in combination) or no (further) mitigation inter- ventions (i.e., keeping the status quo). This study also predicted alternate intervention and relaxation cycles for 365 days in- cluding the total number of patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) at a given time for various combinations of simulations.