A novel index‐based decision support toolkit for safe reopening following a generalized lockdown in low and middle‐income countries

08, July 2021 |

Authors:

Abstract

While the effectiveness of lockdowns to reduce Coronavirus Disease‐2019 (COVID‐19) transmission is well established, uncertainties remain on the lifting principles of these restrictive interventions. World Health Organization recommends case positive rate of 5% or lower as a threshold for safe reopening. However, inadequate testing capacity limits the applicability of this recommendation, especially in the low‐income and middle‐income countries (LMICs). To develop a practical reopening strategy for LMICs, in this study, we first identify the optimal timing of safe reopening by exploring accessible epidemiological data of 24 countries during the initial COVID‐19 surge. We find that a safe opening can occur two weeks after the crossover of daily infection and recovery rates while maintaining a negative trend in daily new cases. Epidemiologic SIRM model‐based example simulation supports our findings. Finally, we develop an easily interpretable large‐scale reopening (LSR) index, which is an evidence‐ based toolkit—to guide/inform reopening decision for LMICs