Covid-19 and university admission exams: A bangladesh perspective

15, December 2020 | Bangladesh

Authors:

Abstract

Background: Educational institutions have been closed in Bangladesh due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and board exams like Higher Secondary Certificate (HSC) exams, as well as univer- sity admission exams have been suspended. Secondary school stu- dents have been promoted based on past performance. As the time has come for students to take admission into universities, educa- tional authorities must make decisions about the logistical and public health arrangements that could allow universities to con- duct admission exams. Design and methods: The public health and lockdown policies were analyzed during the timeframe of 25th March to 15th October. Time series models of the trend of COVID-19 were prepared for the near future using the ARIMA technique, for the lockdown phase and the post lockdown phase. This was evaluated in juxta- position with the restrictions relating to travel, work, schools, pub- lic gatherings, face masks etc. The models were then used to fore- cast positivity rates for two weeks into the future. Results: The curve was not bent during the strict lockdown phase, but the post lockdown phase eventually saw a decline in positivity rates. The best models selected were ARIMA(0,1,7) for the lockdown stage, and ARIMA(7,1,0) for the post lockdown stage. AIC, BIC, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE criteria were used for model selection.